Kentucky Derby entrant Two Phil’s works out at at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 4, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May6.
By Case Keefer (contact)
Saturday, May 6, 2023 | 2 a.m.
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You can rest assured that every bet that appears in the Weekend Wagers column contains a numerical edge, or at least a perceived one, against the price posted at the chosen sports book. Just not necessarily this week.
After what feels like several consecutive losing years on the event, I’m ready to admit that the Kentucky Derby is pure gambling for me. That doesn’t mean I didn’t put several hours of work into handicapping horse racing’s biggest event for yet another year; just that I don’t know how much it matters.
Horse racing is not my forte — pun intended with Forte this year’s morning line favorite at 3-to-1 — but that’s not going to stop me from betting on it at least once a year. Betting on the Run for the Roses might be better in Las Vegas than anywhere with all the fixed-odds offerings, instead of the traditional parimutuel wagering, at several sports books.
Circa Sports particularly has been updating its future pool on horses to win the Kentucky Derby for months and has augmented it with several matchups ahead of today’s race. To kick off today’s Weekend Wagers, I’ll dip into those matchups for a couple bets.
Give me Tapit Trice at +130 (risking $100 to win $130) to finish better than Forte, and Two Phil’s at +130 (risking $100 to win $130) to beat Verifying. Forte is barely holding off the fellow Todd Pletcher-trained Tapit Trice as the favorite with the latter drawing more action as the race draws closer for a reason.
Tapit Trice has the biggest upside of any horse in the field, partly because he has the highest pedigree and sold for a staggering $1.3 million. Two Phil’s, on the other hand, has been the fastest horse racing today by some advanced metrics.
The grammatically-confused colt shouldn’t be this large of an underdog to anyone except perhaps Forte and Tapit Trice, especially not an early speed horse like Verifying who should tail off by the end of the 1 1/4th-mile race.
I’ll take Two Phil’s to win outright too at 14-to-1 (risking $75 to win $1,050) at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. And, finally, let’s mix in one longshot with Disarm at 30-to-1 ($35 to win $1,050) at Caesars/William Hill.
Disarm isn’t as decorated as the top-line contenders but he has a proven trainer (Steve Asmussen) and jockey (Joel Rosario) to go with strong practice reports. Maybe he surprises.
It’s an obligation to include the Kentucky Derby in a betting column running this weekend; I’m just not setting my expectations too high.
Read on for eight more bets in eight different sports for this week’s Weekend Wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
MLB (2-3, -$120): Washington Nationals +130 at Arizona Diamondbacks (Wynn)
$200 to win $260
I find myself betting on the Nationals on a near-daily basis, which, believe or not, has actually been a profitable venture. This team is not quite as bad as it was forecasted to be coming into the season and its surprise competitiveness should continue today at Chase Field. The Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore is a better starting pitcher than the Diamondbacks’ Tommy Henry to make this line too high. The Diamondbacks have an offensive advantage but it’s not all that large. The Nationals should threaten to steal another game, and maintain their status as one of the most profitable bets in the National League so far.
UFC (8-6, $828): Henry Cejudo -115 vs. Aljamain Sterling at UFC 288 (Circa Sports)
Frank Franklin II / Associated Press
Henry Cejudo celebrates after a flyweight mixed martial arts championship bout against TJ Dillashaw at UFC Fight Night early Sunday, Jan. 20, 2019, in New York. Cejudo stopped Dillashaw in the first round.
$230 to win $200
Two months ago, an all-time great champion returned from a three-year layoff to show he was still in the best in the world. Henry Cejudo is about to follow in the footsteps of confidant Jon Jones. The only reason the line sits this short is the time off, and there’s a lot of precedence that special fighters can navigate it and still find success. That’s not guaranteed, but time away is not enough to deter me from a line that would have been -200 or more in Cejudo’s heyday, before his short-lived retirement. Sterling is underrated overall and cashed for me twice in his pair of controversial wins over Petr Yan, but unless Cejudo has truly lost the Olympic wrestling chops that made him unstoppable in his first run, this is a step up in class.
NHL (4-5, -$230): Toronto Maple Leafs adjusted series price +250 vs. Florida Panthers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Wilfredo Lee / AP
Vegas Golden Knights center Ivan Barbashev (49) attempts a shot at Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) during the second period Tuesday, March 7, 2023, in Sunrise, Fla.
$100 to win $250
A mid-series bet on the Maple Leafs worked for the column two weeks ago. Now it’s time to really push our luck. Yes, Toronto is down 2-0 headed on the road to take on red-hot Florida but I’m still not convinced the Maple Leafs are out of the series. They’ve largely dominated the first two games but ran into spectacular goalkeeping performances by Sergei Bobrovsky. I’m expecting Bobrovsky to regress. He’s been mediocre for the last couple of years, not the type of goaltender a team would expect to ride in two straight series against the elite teams in the NHL. Toronto is not dead yet.
IndyCar (0-0, $0): Álex Palou to win the Indianapolis 500 at 11-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)
$100 to win $1,100
Let’s celebrate the arrival of May by making a wager on perhaps the month’s landmark sporting event. The Indianapolis 500 isn’t until May 28, but this line won’t be around that long. The 26-year-old Spaniard might be the best driver on the circuit right now and he’s already shown he’s capable of performing his best on the biggest stage. Two years ago, in his sophomore IndyCar season, Palou had a heartbreaking second-place finish to Helio Castroneves. It’s been his mission ever since to get back into a winning position and finish the job in Indianapolis. With his Chip Ganassi Racing car looking extremely fast recently, this could be the year.
NBA (6-8, -$745): Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +240 (Caesars/William Hill)
Jed Jacobsohn / AP
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) celebrates with center Robert Williams III (44) and center Al Horford (42) during the first half of Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco, Thursday, June 2, 2022.
$200 to win $480
Last week, I made a bet detailing why I thought the Celtics were far and away the best team left in the Eastern Conference. Well, the same pretty much applies to the whole NBA. The Celtics should be closing in on their first NBA title in 15 years a month from now, and the best way to bet on it right now is by backing Tatum to win MVP honors. The Celtics are 2-to-1 just to win the championship right now, but taking the extra 40 cents with Tatum is the smarter approach. If they do indeed prevail, it’s going to require Tatum being at his best. Stock seems down on the Celtics overall, but not for me. They’re the team to beat, and by extension, Tatum is the player to beat in the NBA Finals MVP market.
Golf (1-3, -$10): Rory McIlroy to win the PGA Championship at 12-to-1 (SuperBook)
Peter Morrison / Associated Press
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland jumps to check the line on the 12th hole during the third round of the British Open golf championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews, Scotland, Saturday July 16, 2022.
$200 to win $2,400
This may seem like a strange time to place this wager coming a day after McIlroy imploded to kick himself off the top of the leaderboard at the Wells Fargo Championship. But the 34-year-old should get it together this weekend at arguably his best course, Quail Hollow in Charlotte, and erase this price from the betting board. Oak Hill, where the PGA is being held in two weeks, is also a great fit and familiar course to McIlroy. There’s been way too much talk about him never winning another major after he missed the cut at the Majors. Such chatter conveniently leaves out the fact that he was a historic Cameron Smith fourth-round away from prevailing in the major before that, last year’s Open Championship. McIlroy may still be the best golfer in the world when he’s at his best, making 12-to-1 too attractive of a price to pass up. I’ll feel comfortable going into the next major with positions on Patrick Cantlay and McIlroy in the Weekend Wagers.
NFL (0-1, -$100: Nolan Smith to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)
$100 to win $2,000
Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner won this award a year ago, but that marked the first time since 2018 that an edge rusher didn’t prevail. The honor is heavily slanted towards players who can consistently pressure quarterbacks in the modern day NFL, and no one is stepping into a better situation this year than the former Georgia star. He’s surrounded by talent on the Eagles’ defense, so opposing offensive lines won’t be able to focus mostly on him. That may not be the case with 5-to-1 Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Will Anderson, who figures to be a focal point from Day 1 on the Houston Texans’ defense. A couple other first-round edge rushers could loom large, including the Raiders’ Tyree Wilson and the Packers’ Luke Van Ness, but they’re both listed at 10-to-1. Smith shouldn’t be double the price.
College basketball (4-4, $475): Kansas to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 (BetFred at Virgin Hotels)
Michigan Wolverines center Hunter Dickinson (1) takes the ball between UNLV Rebels forward Royce Hamm Jr. (14) and guard Michael Nuga (1) during a game in the Roman Main Event tournament at T-Mobile Arena Friday, Nov. 19, 2021.
$200 to win $2,800
Full disclosure: I’m biased as a Kansas graduate, but the Jayhawks are now poised to be the preseason No. 1 team in the nation next year after securing a commitment from former Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson. Most sports books responded by dropping Kansas’ odds to 10- or 12-to-1, but BetFred is for some reason holding out at the higher price. That’s a mistake, especially with the Jayhawks still benefitting from a couple more open scholarships for another impact transfer or blue-chip recruit. Yes, it’s a long time to wait before the games start late this year, but when they do, Kansas might be something like 8-to-1. Picking off a 14-to-1 to start Weekend Wagers’ college basketball portfolio ahead of time feels like a wise choice.
Weekend betting column year to date: 33-41-1, $343
Weekend betting column all-time: 512-538-6, $18,469.95
Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); Manchester City to win English Premier League at +125 ($200 to win $250); New Orleans Breakers to win USFL title at 7-to-1 ($200 to win $1,400); Patrick Cantlay to win PGA Championship at 24-to-1 ($100 to win $2,400); Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference at -160 ($480 to win $300); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [emailprotected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager is an opportunity for fans to bet early on the potential Derby horse they think will earn a spot in the starting gate and go on to win the Kentucky Derby race.Where do you place derby bets? ›
You can use websites such as Bovada, TwinSpires and BetOnline to place your bets during the Derby.What is a future bet in horse racing? ›
Future Wager bets typically offer larger payouts than betting the same horse on race day because it is not yet known which horses will ultimately qualify to run in the Derby & Oaks.What is the payout for a 2 dollar bet in the Kentucky Derby? ›
Mage paid $32.42 to win on a $2 bet. Total wagering on all Kentucky Derby Week races broke $400 million for the first time, reaching $412 million from all sources, per Churchill Downs.What is a future wager? ›
Futures bets allow wagers on things that will take longer to determine the result. As is their name, futures bets are a bet on something that will happen in the longer-term future. Future bets also offer the best odds for a casual bettor to hit it big.What is Kentucky Derby advance wagering? ›
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager is an opportunity for fans to bet early on the potential Derby horse they think will earn a spot in the starting gate and go on to win the Kentucky Derby race.What is the best bet to place in horse racing? ›
The safest bet in horse racing is an each-way single bet. A single bet means you do not need multiple horses for you to receive a return for your bet.What is the best way to place a bet on horses? ›
Simply say to the betting operator the number of the horse you have selected, the amount you wish to bet and the type of bet you want to place. Eg. 'Number 3, £5 to win'. They will then give you your ticket which you will need to keep safe until after the race.How do place bets work in horse racing? ›
When you choose a place bet, your selected horse needs to finish in the top two positions. If your selected horse finishes third with a place bet, you will lose your stake. When you choose a show bet, your selected horse needs to finish in the top three positions for you to receive a payout.Where can you place future bets? ›
- BetMGM Bonus Code.
- Barstool Sportsbook Promo Code.
- Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code.
- PointsBet Promo Code.
- BetRivers Bonus Code.
- Hard Rock Sportsbook Promo Code.
- Betfred Promo Code.
- SI Sportsbook Promo Code.
A futures wager may be cashed out until there are no more wagers taken on the event. Bettors should note that sportsbook operators may have different rules for cashing out. Bettors should check in advance to see which kind of wagers will offer a Cash Out feature.How do futures pay out? ›
Oftentimes, traders who hold futures contracts until expiration will settle their position in cash. In other words, the trader will simply pay or receive a cash settlement depending on whether the underlying asset increased or decreased during the investment holding period.How much does a jockey make in the Kentucky Derby? ›
How much money does the Kentucky Derby winner take home? The first-place winner will get $1.86 million, while the jockey will take home $186,000. The second-place finisher will take home $600,000, with the jockey taking home $30,000.Who bet $2 million on the Kentucky Derby? ›
Jim McIngvale, also known as Mattress Mack, was seen placing a $1.2 million bet on a horse named Angel of Empire at the Kentucky Derby. The Houston furniture store owner was spotted placing it behind NBC's Steve Kornacki during his report Saturday evening, less than an hour before post time.How much does a $2 win place show bet cost? ›
Win/Place or Place/Show: Simply a combination of win & place or place & show. There are two combinations, so a $2 bet would cost $4 in total.What is a 10X wager requirement? ›
What does 10x wagering requirement mean? A 10X wagering requirement means that you must wager the amount of your bonus 10X over in order to collect your bonus and subsequent winnings.Do you keep your wager if you win? ›
Remember that the amount you wager remains with the sportsbook if your side loses. But if your side wins, you get back your initial investment, plus your winnings—so in the case of the $180 wager to win $100, a winning bet would pay out $280, while an $18 bet at -180 moneyline odds would pay out $28.Can you bet the Kentucky Derby in advance? ›
2) Early betting
For people wanting to start early and possibly secure better odds now, than when horses enter the starting gate at post time, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is a great option.
Kentucky Derby trifecta payout
For those who placed a $1.00 trifecta on an exact 1-2-3 finish on Mage, Two Phil's and Angel of Empire, you will be taking in $982.36, per the NBC Sports broadcast.
Put the names of every Kentucky Derby horse in a hat and take turns drawing names until every horse has been selected. If everyone bets a small amount on their chosen runner(s), you can guarantee someone will experience the satisfaction of winning a Derby wager.
The answer to can you bet on every horse in every race is – YES!What is the hardest bet to win in horse racing? ›
The granddaddy of all horse betting strategies is the Superfecta, the toughest bet in all of horse racing. The Superfecta is picking the top four finishers in exact order. Minimum entries 6 for a bet to be official.What bet wins the most in horse racing? ›
A trifecta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, as well as exacta wagers, so it yields a higher payout than any of those bets.
The easiest of the so-called exotics to cash on are the EXACTA (pick the first two finishers in one race in exact order) or QUINELLA (pick the first two finishers in one race in either order, though this bet is not widely available), and the DOUBLE (picking the winner of two consecutive races).What time is best to bet on a horse? ›
Most bookmakers will consider bets placed before 9-10 am on the day before a race to be ante-post, applying the necessary rules to those wagers.Should I bet on every horse in a race? ›
What happens if you bet on every horse in a race? If you make a bet on every space on the board you'll lose money every time. It's mathematically impossible for you to make money in that way. This is because the odds are set by the house to make sure that – on average – the house wins.Is it best to bet each-way on horses? ›
In most horse races the idea is to pick the winner. But when you have an event as big as the Grand National, and with a field of 40 runners, the chances of being right on the money are tricky. That's where the 'Each-Way' bet makes more sense.Who should I bet on in the Kentucky Derby? ›
Best Bets for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Coming off a win at the Florida Derby, our experts are not surprised to see Forte as the favorite for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Similarly, Tapit Trice isn't far behind in terms of the odds after four straight victories, including the most recent at the Blue Grass Stakes.
If the Each Way Terms are 4 places at 1/4, this is what happens: My horse is a winner. This means you will be paid for your win part of your bet at the odds chosen when you placed the bet and for the place part of your bet at 1/4 of your odds.How many horses are needed for a place bet? ›
Place betting means betting on a horse finishing in one of the designated places. In practice, this means finishing in the top 2, 3 or 4 depending on the number of runners in the race. For example, in a race with 8 runners, you can get paid for finishing in the top three.
After selecting the League, scroll to the right to find the Futures tab. From here, you can switch between the available Futures Bet categories and track your bet.Can you parlay a futures bet? ›
Yes. Users can combine futures from various markets to form parlays capable of generating massive payouts. For example, a 3-leg parlay on the World Series, NBA Championship, and Super Bowl winners is perfectly acceptable.Where is best to bet? ›
- FanDuel Sportsbook.
- BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Caesars Sportsbook.
- WynnBET Sportsbook.
- BetRivers Sportsbook.
- DraftKings Sportsbook.
- PointsBet Sportsbook.
- FOX Bet Sportsbook.
Hedging bets is part of every professional sports bettor's arsenal but even the casual bettor can use this tool to minimize risk. Let's discuss when to hedge and what the ramifications are of doing so.Is it better to cash out bet? ›
Cash Out allows you to settle for a loss in running or mid-event, and this can prove beneficial if you believe that your selections chances are greatly reduced once the event has started. Anyone who has ever placed a bet before is likely to have heard of the phrase 'Cash Out'.When should you cash out a bet? ›
If a bet has gone south and the bettor doesn't feel there's a good chance of winning, electing to Cash Out of the wager can cut the loss to a lesser amount.How do futures work for dummies? ›
A futures market is an exchange where investors can buy and sell futures contracts. In typical futures contracts, one party agrees to buy a given quantity of securities or a commodity, and take delivery on a certain date. The selling party agrees to provide it.How not to lose money in futures? ›
Futures trading (like all trading) involves a certain degree of risk, so it is important to protect yourself. There are a few ways to do this, such as using sell or buy stops to limit your losses to a comfortable level, or by using hedging strategies like buying puts.How much money do I need for futures? ›
A minimum net liquidation value (NLV) of $25,000 to trade futures in an IRA. Only SEP, Roth, traditional, and rollover IRAs are eligible for futures trading.Who is the richest horse jockey? ›
1. Yutaka Take. Taking the top spot is Japan's Yutaka Take, who has earned an estimated $925m throughout his extensive career, picking up over 4,400 wins in the process.
John Velazquez is the highest-earning jockey of all time in America, having amassed about $430 million USD in earnings throughout his long career. Born in Puerto Rico in 1971, he moved to New York City in 1990.What jockey has won the most money? ›
The winningest Thoroughbred jockey in history is John Velazquez, who has earned $464,477,470 in his long career. He's started over 35,000 races, winning 6,494. The next highest-earning U.S. jockey is Javier Castellano, who has started over 31,000 races with 5,638 wins, for earnings of $379 million.Did Mattress Mack make any money on Kentucky Derby? ›
Instead, he got nothing. (And he later told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he lost a total of $2.6 million on the race as a result of other bets gone bad.) “You win some and you lose some, and sometimes you get rained out,” McIngvale told the newspaper.Why is Mattress Mack rich? ›
Mattress Mack is known all around the world as the founder and owner of the Gallery Furniture Retail Chain, which has given him all the wealth and success. Mack lives in Houston and operates his business from there. Mack has several chains of stores in different cities of America.What horse won the kentucky derby 2023? ›
Mage won the 2023 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday. Mage had only one victory in three previous races before holding off Two Phil's in the stretch while covering 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.57 under Javier Castellano. The Hall of Fame jockey snapped an 0-for-15 skid in the Derby.How much is a 4 horse $1 exacta box? ›
|# of Horses||$1 Base Bet Cost|
Trifecta Box Betting
For example, a $2 three-horse trifecta box costs $12. Adding a fourth horse bumps up the price to $48.
A $1 three-horse trifecta box costs $6 because there are six possible outcomes in which those horses finish in first, second, and third place.How does wager and payout work? ›
If you bet $170 on the Cowboys to win at -170 odds, the payout is $270. However, the profit, or amount of money you win, is $100. Odds can refer to moneyline, spread and total bets, and they can be displayed as American, British (fractional) or European (decimal). While odds look different, they mean the same thing.How much money is wagered on the Kentucky Derby every year? ›
More than $188 million was wagered on the Kentucky Derby race alone, and Churchill Downs saw wagering from all sources — live and simulcast — on the 14 Derby Day races reach a record high total of $288.7 million.
In its simplest form, horse racing payouts are dictated by $2 win bets. If you make a $2 win bet on a horse that goes off at 2-to-1, you would profit $4 and collect $6 with your returned investment. If you make a $2 win bet on a horse that goes off at 5-to-1, you would profit $10 and collect $12.What's the best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby? ›
The Kentucky Derby Futures Wager
There are four windows throughout the year where bettors can get in on a futures market and the final one arrives near the second week in April. This is absolutely one of the best ways to get in on the Derby early to maximize odds potential.
Win/Place or Place/Show: Simply a combination of win & place or place & show. There are two combinations, so a $2 bet would cost $4 in total.How much should I wager each bet? ›
A good medium is 3% per play. For example, if you're starting with a bankroll of $100, you should risk $3 on every bet. If you're starting with $1000, you should risk $30 on every bet. Your unit size would be $3 or $30, respectively.What happens if you bet $100 on a money line? ›
The underdog is the player or team considered less likely to win. Again using $100 as a standard betting unit, a bettor would have to wager $100 to win the amount listed (i.e. +150) for an underdog win. In this instance, a bettor would wager $100 to win $150, thus totaling $250 for the payout.Do jockeys make a lot of money? ›
The percentages a jockey receives for a Thoroughbred race range from 5% for a second- or third-place finish to 10% for first place. In less competitive races, the jockey's earnings can be as low as 0.50% for a third-place finish, 1% for placing second and perhaps 6%-10% for first place.How much does winning jockey make at Kentucky Derby? ›
How much money does the Kentucky Derby winner take home? The first-place winner will get $1.86 million, while the jockey will take home $186,000.How much do horse owners make for winning a race? ›
Finishers receive a percentage of the purse, with 60% going to the winner, 20% to the runner-up, 10% to third place, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth, and 2% to sixth. So, the owner of a winning horse in a race with a $20,000 purse would make $12,000.What is the most profitable way to bet on horse racing? ›
The 80/20 System
It is a strategy for earning from horses through wagering on them to win and get a place on the betting exchange. If you want to use this horse race betting strategy, you will need to bet 20% on the horse that will win the race and 80% on the same horse to finish with a place.
Bettors who love to play long shots hit it big at the 148th Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Rich Strike, a late entrant in the grandest horse race, went off at 80-1 odds. Meaning a $10 Win bet on the Derby winner would've returned $818.